Key events on the Global Scene:
Corporate Earnings Drives Equities Higher
This week, economic optimism in the US, fuelled by the start of a new administration, and positive corporate developments in other key markets, outweighed weak economic data and a less-dovish monetary policy outlook. In the US, initial jobless claims logged at 223,000 for the week ending January 18, up by 6,000 from the prior week. The latest print, which came in higher than market’s forecast of 221,000, marked the highest filing in the last three years. Despite this and heightened uncertainty stemming from the rapid issuance of executive orders, the US equities market closed positive for the week. The surge was driven by major investment commitments by corporate and sovereigns’ interests, including $500bn AI “Stargate” Project and $600bn pledge by Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, positive earnings release from blue-chip stocks like Netflix (Q4 Revenue $10.2bn vs $10.1bn actual), United Airlines (Q4 Revenue $14.7bn actual vs expected $14.3bn) , P&G (Q4 Revenue $21.9bn vs $21.5bn) and American Express (Q4 Revenue $17.2bn vs $17.1bn) spurred the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices to a gain of 2.1% and 2.0% w/w, respectively.
Key events on the Domestic Scene:
The Treasury Bills market exhibited a bullish bias this week, with selective demand focused on December 2025 and January 2026 bills. Early sessions saw subdued activity as participants awaited the NTB auction, where the DMO offered ₦530 billion across tenors. The auction results drove heightened activity, as subscription totalled ₦2.535 trillion and allotment printed at ₦756.01 billion, with the 1-year paper’s stop rate declining by 82.2bps to 21.80%. Meanwhile, the rates for the 91 day and 182-day papers held steady at 18.00% and 18.50%, respectively. Investor interest shifted to newly issued 22 January 2026 bill, which saw a c.100bps drop in yield. By week’s end, emphasis was on long-tenor bills, with the average mid-rate for benchmark NTBs declining 19bps w/w to 22.44%.
The Nigeria bourse market ended the week on a bullish note, reversing last week’s bearish trend. This recovery was driven by renewed investor confidence in key sectors, particularly Telecommunications, following NCC’s approval of a 50.0% tariff hike(first adjustment since 2013). The positive sentiment spilled over to the broader market, with the NGX-ASI gaining 1.2% w/w to settle at 103,598.50 points. As a result, YTD return improved to 0.7% (previously -0.6%), while market capitalisation advanced 1.3% w/w to ₦63.6tn.
Sectoral performance was mixed, as three indices gained, while the other three lost. The Banking index led the gainers, up 4.1% w/w, driven by buy interest in UBA (+7.7%), ZENITHBANK (+6.0%), and ACCESSCORP(+4.8%). Following, the AFR-ICT and Industrial Goods indices rose 2.4% and 0.1% w/w, respectively, as MTNN (+6.4%), CWG (+0.7%), WAPCO (+0.7%) and CUTIX (+1.9%) enjoyed price uptick. Conversely, the Consumer Goods and Insurance indices led the losers, down 1.2% w/w apiece, owing to selloffs on DANGSUGAR (-9.1%), INTBREW (-3.7%), SUNUASSU (-25.1%) and CORNERST (-14.3%). Also, the Oil & Gas index shed 0.9% w/w as ETERNA (-1.6%) and ARADEL (-2.9%) posted losses.
Capital Market Review/Outlook (FI and Equities):
- The Eurobond market began the week subdued due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and the U.S. presidential inauguration. Limited trading led to a 7bps decline in Nigerian bonds’ average mid-yield to 9.29%. The market turned bearish midweek, with selling pressure on Sub-Saharan African bonds, particularly in Nigeria and Angola, as Angola announced plans to raise over $2 billion in Eurobonds. Egyptian bonds, however, saw buying interest initially before profit-taking set in. By week’s end, the market rallied on dovish remarks by President Trump, where he indicated a preference against imposing additional tariffs on China, alleviating concerns about trade tensions. His dovish remarks boosted global risk appetite, with investors showing interest in higher-yielding assets like SSA Eurobonds. Additionally, Trump reiterated his call for lower interest rates, asserting that they would promote economic growth and enhance competitiveness. Overall, the average mid-yield of Nigerian Eurobond yields closed flat week-on-week at 9.36%.
- The FGN local bond market experienced a quiet but bearish week, driven by selling interest, particularly in the February 2031 bond, with offers around 22.30%-22.50%. Activity remained subdued as participants anticipated higher yields at the upcoming FGN bond auction. The DMO announced a ₦450 billion offer across three bonds: April 2029 (₦100 billion), February 2031 (₦150 billion), and January 2035 (₦200 billion). By week’s end, mixed trading was observed, primarily in short- to mid-tenor bonds like April 2029 and February 2031. Overall, the average mid-yield across the curve rose by 6bps w/w to close at 20.15%.
Macro Economic Variables
| Equities | This week | Prior week |
| S&P 500 | 3.73% | 1.96% |
| NGX ASI | 0.7% | -0.6% |
| Fixed Income | ||
| Overnight | 27.5% | 32.33% |
| Open Buy Back | 27.0% | 32.75% |
| 1 year T-bill | 21.47% | 21.47% |
| 5-year bond | 21.54% | 21.43% |
| 10-year bond | 21.35% | 21.40% |
| Currency | ||
| FX Reserves ($’bn) | 39.99 | 40.35 |
| USD/NGN | 1,533.26 | 1,546.72 |
| Crude Oil (N/$) | ||
| Brent | 78.50 | 80.79 |
Key Economic Variables
| CPI (%) YoY | DEC-24 | NOV-24 |
| Headline Inflation | 34.80% | 34.6% |
| GDP (%) YoY | Q3 24 | Q2 24 |
| Real GDP | 3.46% | 3.19% |
| Monetary Policy Rate (%) | 27.50% |
Securities Recommendations:
| Security | Rationale |
| AXA Mansard Money Market Fund | The fund is currently at c. 20.31% p.a. as at 23rd Jan, 2024. |
| Dollar Denominated Fixed Deposit | Protects the investor from devaluation of the Naira and exchange rate risk with a return of c.4% – 6%p.a |
| Fixed Income Opportunities | Take advantage of our Naira fixed deposits with fixed rates from 18.85% to 23.80% p.a |
